Southeast Region of Korea Predicted to be Hot and Wet This Summer

Summer temperatures in Busan, Ulsan, and Gyeongnam are expected to be similar to or higher than normal this year, according to the Busan Meteorological Administration.

The three-month outlook for June to August indicates a 40% probability of above-normal temperatures and a 50% chance of normal precipitation for June and August. However, July is predicted to have above-normal rainfall.

Climate prediction models from 10 global meteorological offices, including Australia and Canada, suggest temperatures from June to August will be higher than usual. The Korea Meteorological Administration attributes this to higher sea surface temperatures in the North Pacific and Indian Oceans, increasing temperatures in Korea.

Factors that may contribute to lower temperatures than average include reduced snowfall in Manchuria, which increases surface heating and strengthens the anticyclonic circulation in the Sea of Okhotsk.

Additionally, the formation of a cyclonic circulation over the Korean Peninsula and eastern Japan in July, along with the frequent inflow of north winds into Korea, could result in cooler temperatures.

Precipitation, especially in July, is expected to be above average. El Niño can cause increased sea surface temperatures in the tropical central Pacific Ocean, resulting in strengthened cyclonic circulation near Korea and an inflow of moisture from the south. The average monthly precipitation in the BuUlGyeong area during July ranges from 221.6 to 322.1 mm.

The warming trend in South Korea continues, with the average temperature during June to August increasing by 0.6 degrees Celsius per decade compared to normal years from 1973 to 2022.

The average temperatures for June to August are 21.4’C, 24.6’C, and 25.1’C in June, July, and August, respectively.

In Busan, the average temperature from June to August between 1991 and 2020 was 23.8’C, slightly higher than the national average of 23.7’C.

The highest temperature in Busan during this period was 27.2’C, lower than the national average of 28.5’C.

The total precipitation in Busan from June to August was 781.7 mm, 54.4 mm more than the national average.

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